APRIL 2011 , 4X AS BUSY AS AVG

HELLO ALL

SO WE LOOK AT THE MONTH OF APRIL AND SOME SCARY STATS HIT ME

LETS FIRST LOOK AT CITIES ON DR GREG FORBES TORNADO HIT LIST , THE PINK IS THE ONES THAT HAVE BEEN HIT THIS YR WITHIN A 30 MILE RADI OF THE CITY

Metro Tornadoes    
1950-2010
preliminary
       
         
Rank by        
Density Metro Tornadoes Density % above/below
      per yr per 1000 sq mi state avg 1950-2007
         
1 Clearwater, FL 122 7.142857 621
2 Oklahoma City, OK 101 2.335314 187
3 Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL 134 2.090125 111
4 New Orleans, LA 62 2.08705 232
5 Tulsa, OK 72 2.070751 154
6 Houston, TX 214 2.029032 287
7 Melbourne, FL 116 1.866182 88
8 Indianapolis, IN 41 1.697301 187
9 Lubbock, TX 91 1.657559 216
10 Fort Worth, TX 84 1.593807 204
11 Dallas, TX 85 1.583458 202
12 Little Rock, AR 74 1.57343 215
13 Fort Lauderdale, FL 113 1.532224 55
14 Denver, CO 267 1.498989 391
15 Des Moines, IA 52 1.495542 124
16 Daytona Beach, FL 97 1.437761 45
17 Jacksonville, FL 66 1.39789 41
18 Milwaukee, WI 20 1.35483 261
19 Wichita, KS 82 1.344262 84
20 Evansville, IN  18 1.255668 112
21 Jackson, MS 66 1.245072 101
22 West Palm Beach, FL 149 1.237398 25
23 Memphis, TN 53 1.150798 210
24 Birmingham, AL 78 1.148867 116
25 Huntsville, AL 56 1.140413 114
26 Davenport, IA 61 1.129944 69
27 Shreveport, LA 118 1.124013 79
28 Miami, FL 130 1.095706 11
29 St. Louis, MO 33 1.064928 132
30 Orlando, FL 58 1.047158 6
31 Amarillo, TX 114 1.02459 96
32 Austin, TX 61 1.011122 93
33 Kansas City, KS/MO 124 0.991603 67
34 Nashville, TN 30 0.979688 164
35 Philadelphia, PA 8 0.971463 264
36 Atlanta, GA 71 0.909324 131
37 Chicago, IL 51 0.88379 38
38 Columbus, OH 28 0.85003 119
39 Detroit, MI 31 0.827682 184
40 Norfolk, VA 58 0.795 224
41 San Antonio, TX 60 0.788778 51
42 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN 60 0.766646 140
43 Gary, IN  23 0.75865 28
44 Charlotte, NC 22 0.684356 83
45 Fort Wayne, IN 27 0.673703 14
46 Omaha NE-Council Bluffs IA 51 0.650635 5
47 Louisville, KY 15 0.638706 114
48 New York City, NY 12 0.636639 372
49 Baltimore, MD 21 0.574728 12
50 Grand Rapids, MI 30 0.574537 97
51 Cincinnati, OH 14 0.563902 45
52 Greenville-Spartansburg SC 54 0.552243 15
53 Washington, DC 2 0.53749 42
54 Raleigh-Durham, NC 36 0.52459 41
55 Lexington, KY 9 0.517688 73
56 Cleveland, OH 14 0.50111 29
57 Harrisburg, PA 14 0.437158 64
58 Akron, OH 11 0.436629 13
59 Dayton, OH 22 0.411238 6
60 Hartford, CT 17 0.378653 25
61 Toledo, OH 7 0.337512 -13
62 Pittsburgh, PA 15 0.336852 26
63 Boston, MA 26 0.332213 -5
64 Greensboro, NC 13 0.327869 -12
65 Salt Lake City, UT 14 0.311409 1146
66 Buffalo, NY 19 0.298063 121
67 Providence, RI 6 0.238161 52
68 Sacramento, CA 11 0.186675 344
69 Portland, ME 8 0.156875 166
70 Phoenix, AZ 60 0.106867 214
71 San Diego, CA 26 0.101363 141
72 San Francisco-Oakland, CA 13 0.084402 101
73 Portland, OR 14 0.07582 321
74 Los Angeles, CA 112 0.062246 48
75 Albuquerque, NM 16 0.053793 -29
76 Seattle, WA 5 0.038555 48
77 Tucson, AZ 20 0.035688 5
78 Las Vegas, NV 11 0.022795 90

APRIL 27 ROTATION MAP BASED ON RADAR VERIFICATION OF ROTATION

TORNADOES IN APRIL

STATE 

VA :35 (3-5 A YR )

NC:86(4-8 A YR)

1974 SUPER OUTBREAK VS 2011 SUPER OUTBREAK

1974 Super Outbreak vs 2011 Super Outbreak

1974- 148
2011- 328

Map of 110427_rpts's severe weather reports

1974 HAD MORE EF3,EF4 AND EF 5 TORNADOES ,BUT 2011 HAD MORE TORNADOES IN THE 48 HR PERIOD
 
DEAN D DAVISON
METEORLOGIST LIVEWEATHERBLOGS.COM


Advertisements
Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

OVERNIGHT OUTLOOK AND MY PROMOTION TO ADMINISTRATOR ON LWB

GOOD EVENING 

FIRST OFF I WOULD LIKE TO THANK ROB FOR HIS CONTINUING DEDICATION ON MAKING LIVEWEATHERBLOGS.COM THE BEST SITE AROUND TO LEARN AND TALK WEATHER AND TO GET WEATHER INFORMATION . AS STATED IN ROBS BLOG EARLIER , MIKE DEFINO AND MYSELF ARE WEBSITE ADMINISTRATORS , ANY ISSUES THAT NEED TO BE RESLOVED PLEASE CONTACT US OR ROB . PLEASE REFRAIN IN THE USE OF FOUL WORDS OR HARRASMENT . THERE ARE ALOT F PEOPLE WHO VISIT THIS SITE AND ALOT OF KIDS, THAT BEING SAID WATCH WHAT U SAY . ANY  BLOG SLANDERING ANYONE ON THIS SITE WILL BE REMOVED IMMIDEATELY  NO QUESTIONS ASKED , IT WILL NOT BE TOLERATED . OTHER THEN THAT MOST OF YOU ALL KNOW THE RULES AND HOW IT GOES SO KEEP UP WHAT U DO , WRITING GREAT BLOGS AND SHARING WEATHER INFO WITH EACHOTHER , ONE THING IS U WILL ALWAYS LEARN SOMETHING U DIDNT KNOW PRIOR IF U READ THESE BLOGS, EVERYONE HERE HAS THERE OWN KNOWLEDGE LEVELS AND WE HAVE VERY TALENTED MEMBERS AND METEORLOGISTS , IF U ONLY VIEW IN WINTER , TRY TO VIEW IN SPRING FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HURRICANE SEASON. METEOROLOGIST LEVI C AND METEOROLOGIST BOB ACANFRIO  ARE SOME OF THE MOST TALENTED HURRICANE AND TROPICAL METS I HAVE EVER SEEN , MIKE DEFINO AND MYSELF HAVE A WEALTH OF KNOWLEDGE IN SEVERE WEATHER AND MESOSCALE METEOROLOGY . THE NEW SITE WILL  BE SOMETHING THAT EVERYONE WILL ENJOY .

DEAN D DAVISON 
LIVEWEATHERBLOGS.COM STAFF METEOROLOGIST / ADMINISTRATOR

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

EF 1 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN SURRY CO NC

ONE EF 1 TORNADO CONFIRMED SO FAR IN THE TRIAD NC(PICS)
Posted: (April 05, 2011 01:36 pm)

GOOD AFTERNOON 

ONE TORNADO HAS NOW BEEN CONFIRMED IN SURRY COUNTY NC , IN THE TRIAD, THERE IS AT LEAST ONE OR 2 MORE BEING LOOKED INTO IN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN  THE TRIAD AND ONE BEING LOOKED INTO IN HENRY CO VA

Confirmed Tornado Touches Down in Surry Co.

SOURCE MYFOX8.COM IN TRIAD NC

000
NOUS41 KRNK 051549
PNSRNK
NCZ002>004-019-020-VAZ015-016-032-052000-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1149 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

…TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR ARARAT IN SURRY COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA…

LOCATION…ARARAT IN SURRY COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
DATE…APRIL 5 2011
ESTIMATED TIME…1:25 AM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING…EF1
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED…90-100 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH…250 YARDS
PATH LENGTH…2.7 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON…36.39511N / -80.572086W NEAR THE INTERSECTION
OF ARARAT ROAD AND LITTLE MOUNTAIN CHURCH ROAD
MOVEMENT…EAST-NORTHEAST
ENDING LAT/LON…36.410874N / -80.528064W ON SCOOTER ROAD JUST
SOUTH OF ARARAT ROAD
ESTIMATED DAMAGE…35 TO 40 HOMES…$560,000

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

…SUMMARY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG VA HAS CONFIRMED A
TORNADO NEAR ARARAT IN SURRY COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA ON APRIL 5 2011.
MANY THANKS TO THE SURRY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR THEIR
ASSITANCE DURING THE DAMAGE SURVEY.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/RNK.

FOR REFERENCE…THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO
THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0…WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1…WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2…WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3…WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4…WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5…WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

SOUTHEAST MONTHLY OUTLOOK

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK AHEAD ROANOKE AND EAST COAST

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

TORNADO POTENTAL IN MIDATLANTIC

GOOD MORNING EVERYONE,

THERE IS A VERY REAL THREAT OF TORNADOES AND WIND  ARE HIGH IN THE EAST COAST , WHEN WE NORMALLY SEE A WEAKER FRONT MOVE THRU THE EAST , WE ARE LOOKING AT A STRONG FRONT WITH THE ENERGY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD TORNADO AND WIND , THIS AS A WHOLE WILL LIKELY CAUSE OVER 20 TORNADO REPORTS NATION WIDE , AND THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH END TORNADOES EF3 + OCCUR , THE OTHER ISSUE IS NOCTERNAL TORNADOES WHICH MAY OCCUR IN TN VALLEY THEN EASTERN  EAST COAST ,..

CITIES ON EAST COAST WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MON-TUES
PHILLY,PA
AC,NJ
NYC
BALT,MD
DC
ROANOKE,VA
RICHMOND,VA
GREENSBORO,NC
CHARLOTTE,NC
ATLANTA,GA
JACKSONVILLE FL
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Graphics Issued on Apr 1, 2011

TAKE DAY 5 UP TO THE HUDSON VALLEY IN MY FORECAST

 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CDT FRI APR 01 2011
  
   VALID 041200Z – 091200Z
  
   …DISCUSSION…
   00Z GFS/ECMWF REMAIN SIMILAR IN MAINTAINING AN AMPLIFIED FULL
   LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS
   ON DAY 4 /MON/…AND THEN ACROSS THE ERN STATES ON DAY 5 /TUE/ AS A
   MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED SYSTEM.  THESE MODELS DO DIFFER IN THE TIMING
   OF THIS TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF FASTER…ESPECIALLY ON DAY 5
   ACCELERATING THIS TROUGH OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. 
  
   …DAY 4 /MON APR 4/…
   MODELS MAINTAIN LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS FROM THE
   MID-LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
   STATES ON DAY 4.  GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD ACROSS THIS REGION
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH VERY STRONG EWD MIGRATING SLY LLJ.  TSTM
   ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED AS FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT ATTENDING THE
   UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF STRONGER EML.  THIS AND STRONG WIND
   FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS
   WITH TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
  
   …DAY 5 /TUE APR 5/…
   DESPITE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THE GFS/ECMWF…A SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN STATES AND THE MID
   ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON TUESDAY.

  
STRONG LLJ IN KY TN AL MS AT THIS POINT

MOVIN TOEARD THE EAST 992 LOW ,  STRONG LLJ COMING INTO WESTERN NC VAAT THIS POINT

LIFT IS GOOD

DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S AND 60S IN VA NC UP TO PHL 

GOOD SHEAR

AUDIO BLOG BY 5P THIS EVENING

DEAN D DAVISON
STAFF METEOROLOGIST

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

3/31/ forecast

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment