APRIL 2011 , 4X AS BUSY AS AVG

HELLO ALL

SO WE LOOK AT THE MONTH OF APRIL AND SOME SCARY STATS HIT ME

LETS FIRST LOOK AT CITIES ON DR GREG FORBES TORNADO HIT LIST , THE PINK IS THE ONES THAT HAVE BEEN HIT THIS YR WITHIN A 30 MILE RADI OF THE CITY

Metro Tornadoes
1950-2010 preliminary
Rank by
Density	Metro	Tornadoes	Density	% above/below
			per yr per 1000 sq mi	state avg 1950-2007
1	Clearwater, FL	122	7.142857	621
2	Oklahoma City, OK	101	2.335314	187
3	Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL	134	2.090125	111
4	New Orleans, LA	62	2.08705	232
5	Tulsa, OK	72	2.070751	154
6	Houston, TX	214	2.029032	287
7	Melbourne, FL	116	1.866182	88
8	Indianapolis, IN	41	1.697301	187
9	Lubbock, TX	91	1.657559	216
10	Fort Worth, TX	84	1.593807	204
11	Dallas, TX	85	1.583458	202
12	Little Rock, AR	74	1.57343	215
13	Fort Lauderdale, FL	113	1.532224	55
14	Denver, CO	267	1.498989	391
15	Des Moines, IA	52	1.495542	124
16	Daytona Beach, FL	97	1.437761	45
17	Jacksonville, FL	66	1.39789	41
18	Milwaukee, WI	20	1.35483	261
19	Wichita, KS	82	1.344262	84
20	Evansville, IN	18	1.255668	112
21	Jackson, MS	66	1.245072	101
22	West Palm Beach, FL	149	1.237398	25
23	Memphis, TN	53	1.150798	210
24	Birmingham, AL	78	1.148867	116
25	Huntsville, AL	56	1.140413	114
26	Davenport, IA	61	1.129944	69
27	Shreveport, LA	118	1.124013	79
28	Miami, FL	130	1.095706	11
29	St. Louis, MO	33	1.064928	132
30	Orlando, FL	58	1.047158	6
31	Amarillo, TX	114	1.02459	96
32	Austin, TX	61	1.011122	93
33	Kansas City, KS/MO	124	0.991603	67
34	Nashville, TN	30	0.979688	164
35	Philadelphia, PA	8	0.971463	264
36	Atlanta, GA	71	0.909324	131
37	Chicago, IL	51	0.88379	38
38	Columbus, OH	28	0.85003	119
39	Detroit, MI	31	0.827682	184
40	Norfolk, VA	58	0.795	224
41	San Antonio, TX	60	0.788778	51
42	Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN	60	0.766646	140
43	Gary, IN	23	0.75865	28
44	Charlotte, NC	22	0.684356	83
45	Fort Wayne, IN	27	0.673703	14
46	Omaha NE-Council Bluffs IA	51	0.650635	5
47	Louisville, KY	15	0.638706	114
48	New York City, NY	12	0.636639	372
49	Baltimore, MD	21	0.574728	12
50	Grand Rapids, MI	30	0.574537	97
51	Cincinnati, OH	14	0.563902	45
52	Greenville-Spartansburg SC	54	0.552243	15
53	Washington, DC	2	0.53749	42
54	Raleigh-Durham, NC	36	0.52459	41
55	Lexington, KY	9	0.517688	73
56	Cleveland, OH	14	0.50111	29
57	Harrisburg, PA	14	0.437158	64
58	Akron, OH	11	0.436629	13
59	Dayton, OH	22	0.411238	6
60	Hartford, CT	17	0.378653	25
61	Toledo, OH	7	0.337512	-13
62	Pittsburgh, PA	15	0.336852	26
63	Boston, MA	26	0.332213	-5
64	Greensboro, NC	13	0.327869	-12
65	Salt Lake City, UT	14	0.311409	1146
66	Buffalo, NY	19	0.298063	121
67	Providence, RI	6	0.238161	52
68	Sacramento, CA	11	0.186675	344
69	Portland, ME	8	0.156875	166
70	Phoenix, AZ	60	0.106867	214
71	San Diego, CA	26	0.101363	141
72	San Francisco-Oakland, CA	13	0.084402	101
73	Portland, OR	14	0.07582	321
74	Los Angeles, CA	112	0.062246	48
75	Albuquerque, NM	16	0.053793	-29
76	Seattle, WA	5	0.038555	48
77	Tucson, AZ	20	0.035688	5
78	Las Vegas, NV	11	0.022795	90

APRIL 27 ROTATION MAP BASED ON RADAR VERIFICATION OF ROTATION

TORNADOES IN APRIL

STATE 

VA :35 (3-5 A YR )

NC:86(4-8 A YR)

1974 SUPER OUTBREAK VS 2011 SUPER OUTBREAK

1974 Super Outbreak vs 2011 Super Outbreak

1974- 148
2011- 328

1974 HAD MORE EF3,EF4 AND EF 5 TORNADOES ,BUT 2011 HAD MORE TORNADOES IN THE 48 HR PERIOD

 

DEAN D DAVISON

METEORLOGIST LIVEWEATHERBLOGS.COM

OVERNIGHT OUTLOOK AND MY PROMOTION TO ADMINISTRATOR ON LWB

GOOD EVENING 

FIRST OFF I WOULD LIKE TO THANK ROB FOR HIS CONTINUING DEDICATION ON MAKING LIVEWEATHERBLOGS.COM THE BEST SITE AROUND TO LEARN AND TALK WEATHER AND TO GET WEATHER INFORMATION . AS STATED IN ROBS BLOG EARLIER , MIKE DEFINO AND MYSELF ARE WEBSITE ADMINISTRATORS , ANY ISSUES THAT NEED TO BE RESLOVED PLEASE CONTACT US OR ROB . PLEASE REFRAIN IN THE USE OF FOUL WORDS OR HARRASMENT . THERE ARE ALOT F PEOPLE WHO VISIT THIS SITE AND ALOT OF KIDS, THAT BEING SAID WATCH WHAT U SAY . ANY  BLOG SLANDERING ANYONE ON THIS SITE WILL BE REMOVED IMMIDEATELY  NO QUESTIONS ASKED , IT WILL NOT BE TOLERATED . OTHER THEN THAT MOST OF YOU ALL KNOW THE RULES AND HOW IT GOES SO KEEP UP WHAT U DO , WRITING GREAT BLOGS AND SHARING WEATHER INFO WITH EACHOTHER , ONE THING IS U WILL ALWAYS LEARN SOMETHING U DIDNT KNOW PRIOR IF U READ THESE BLOGS, EVERYONE HERE HAS THERE OWN KNOWLEDGE LEVELS AND WE HAVE VERY TALENTED MEMBERS AND METEORLOGISTS , IF U ONLY VIEW IN WINTER , TRY TO VIEW IN SPRING FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HURRICANE SEASON. METEOROLOGIST LEVI C AND METEOROLOGIST BOB ACANFRIO  ARE SOME OF THE MOST TALENTED HURRICANE AND TROPICAL METS I HAVE EVER SEEN , MIKE DEFINO AND MYSELF HAVE A WEALTH OF KNOWLEDGE IN SEVERE WEATHER AND MESOSCALE METEOROLOGY . THE NEW SITE WILL  BE SOMETHING THAT EVERYONE WILL ENJOY .

DEAN D DAVISON 
LIVEWEATHERBLOGS.COM STAFF METEOROLOGIST / ADMINISTRATOR

EF 1 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN SURRY CO NC

ONE EF 1 TORNADO CONFIRMED SO FAR IN THE TRIAD NC(PICS)
Posted: (April 05, 2011 01:36 pm)

GOOD AFTERNOON 

ONE TORNADO HAS NOW BEEN CONFIRMED IN SURRY COUNTY NC , IN THE TRIAD, THERE IS AT LEAST ONE OR 2 MORE BEING LOOKED INTO IN DAVIDSON COUNTY IN  THE TRIAD AND ONE BEING LOOKED INTO IN HENRY CO VA

SOURCE MYFOX8.COM IN TRIAD NC

000
NOUS41 KRNK 051549
PNSRNK
NCZ002>004-019-020-VAZ015-016-032-052000-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1149 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

…TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR ARARAT IN SURRY COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA…

LOCATION…ARARAT IN SURRY COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
DATE…APRIL 5 2011
ESTIMATED TIME…1:25 AM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING…EF1
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED…90-100 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH…250 YARDS
PATH LENGTH…2.7 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON…36.39511N / -80.572086W NEAR THE INTERSECTION
OF ARARAT ROAD AND LITTLE MOUNTAIN CHURCH ROAD
MOVEMENT…EAST-NORTHEAST
ENDING LAT/LON…36.410874N / -80.528064W ON SCOOTER ROAD JUST
SOUTH OF ARARAT ROAD
ESTIMATED DAMAGE…35 TO 40 HOMES…$560,000

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

…SUMMARY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG VA HAS CONFIRMED A
TORNADO NEAR ARARAT IN SURRY COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA ON APRIL 5 2011.
MANY THANKS TO THE SURRY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR THEIR
ASSITANCE DURING THE DAMAGE SURVEY.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/RNK.

FOR REFERENCE…THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO
THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0…WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1…WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2…WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3…WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4…WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5…WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH

SOUTHEAST MONTHLY OUTLOOK

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK AHEAD ROANOKE AND EAST COAST

TORNADO POTENTAL IN MIDATLANTIC

GOOD MORNING EVERYONE,

THERE IS A VERY REAL THREAT OF TORNADOES AND WIND  ARE HIGH IN THE EAST COAST , WHEN WE NORMALLY SEE A WEAKER FRONT MOVE THRU THE EAST , WE ARE LOOKING AT A STRONG FRONT WITH THE ENERGY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD TORNADO AND WIND , THIS AS A WHOLE WILL LIKELY CAUSE OVER 20 TORNADO REPORTS NATION WIDE , AND THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH END TORNADOES EF3 + OCCUR , THE OTHER ISSUE IS NOCTERNAL TORNADOES WHICH MAY OCCUR IN TN VALLEY THEN EASTERN  EAST COAST ,..

CITIES ON EAST COAST WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MON-TUES
PHILLY,PA
AC,NJ
NYC
BALT,MD
DC
ROANOKE,VA
RICHMOND,VA
GREENSBORO,NC
CHARLOTTE,NC
ATLANTA,GA
JACKSONVILLE FL

TAKE DAY 5 UP TO THE HUDSON VALLEY IN MY FORECAST

 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CDT FRI APR 01 2011
  
   VALID 041200Z – 091200Z
  
   …DISCUSSION…
   00Z GFS/ECMWF REMAIN SIMILAR IN MAINTAINING AN AMPLIFIED FULL
   LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS
   ON DAY 4 /MON/…AND THEN ACROSS THE ERN STATES ON DAY 5 /TUE/ AS A
   MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED SYSTEM.  THESE MODELS DO DIFFER IN THE TIMING
   OF THIS TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF FASTER…ESPECIALLY ON DAY 5
   ACCELERATING THIS TROUGH OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. 
  
   …DAY 4 /MON APR 4/…
   MODELS MAINTAIN LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS FROM THE
   MID-LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
   STATES ON DAY 4.  GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD ACROSS THIS REGION
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH VERY STRONG EWD MIGRATING SLY LLJ.  TSTM
   ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED AS FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT ATTENDING THE
   UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF STRONGER EML.  THIS AND STRONG WIND
   FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS
   WITH TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
  
   …DAY 5 /TUE APR 5/…
   DESPITE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THE GFS/ECMWF…A SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN STATES AND THE MID
   ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON TUESDAY.

  
STRONG LLJ IN KY TN AL MS AT THIS POINT

MOVIN TOEARD THE EAST 992 LOW ,  STRONG LLJ COMING INTO WESTERN NC VAAT THIS POINT

LIFT IS GOOD

DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S AND 60S IN VA NC UP TO PHL 

GOOD SHEAR

AUDIO BLOG BY 5P THIS EVENING

DEAN D DAVISON
STAFF METEOROLOGIST

3/31/ forecast

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